The setting was very telling, like Brezhnef and Kruzchief, and sometimes Gorby, he was seated at a desk with a lot of phones. He was there to look like he was in charge, but I could tell by the multi line phone, it was the secretary's desk! A Russian flag in the background, and oddly, a signer for the deaf superimposed in the foreground, gave it an odd touch. He was visibly reading a script, and when he finished, he looked a little lost. The wooden appearance, and the obvious cut in the tape, did not add credibility to him as the leader of the country.

Victor Stepanovich Chernomyrdin's (the ex-Prime Minister) conference at 1 pm was just the opposite. He strolled into a Western styled conference center, gave his speech, where he stressed continuity (all the old faces will be rehired, but in new places) and economic progress. Victor spoke his address from memory, smiled, and even joked once, plainly a man happy with his sacking.

Victor looked like the man in control. His ambition to be the next Prez is the worst kept secret in Russia, and now he is free to campaign. The acting Prime Minister, a guy no one has heard of, was put in his spot strategically. Victor is betting Yeltsin will not make it to 2000, the next election, so if he dies early, and the unknown is Prez, everyone will want an election. With Victor already running, he is in the catbird seat.

Oh, Victor is putting together the new Cabinet. Talk about a power play! Now he can camping on the ability to be a powerful man in the current cabinet, and the next prez. Long live the New King!

Post Publication Addition

After I wrote this page, a Russian friend sent the following email, rebuffing my views. She may be on to something here!

The Russian View

By Lena

Normal temperature conditions are incompatible with Russia. This April cold weather stimulated a great talent of a boilerman in our 'Kremlin peacock' (Boris Nikolivitch). He decided to warm up the country's political life. But the splash of boiled water hit not only bureaucrats how it was meant to, but also common people.

The principle of the most events is not WHAT? is being done ( the procedure of the government's resignation is worked out in any civilized country )but rather HOW? and WHAT FOR? Constitution and legislation are being exploited in my homeland.

The 'tailors' of every new state leader alter any juridical or constitutional suit to the size of their boss. With every day of Boris' political life (or near death) his suits are getting tighter and tighter.

At the moment we are the witnesses of the full-scaled power redistribution, the results of which will change a lot of things fundamentally in future. The present petty tyrant doesn't fit into any of the possible variants. Being a half-witted, super-ambitious person he is extraordinary attractive as a 'screen' for the various manipulations, but his habits of an 'unfaithful wife' repelled many smart, shrewd and patriotic-minded manipulators. The pathological consistency, with which he cheats on his every team, keep the grand economic and political powers away from him.

He reached the top in illusions creating and soon the people was taking his every word of promise as one that doesn't go beyond the bounds of this genre of illusion. They don't believe him and they don't believe in him. And this means that he himself becomes an unreal character.

We can talk about the real characters a little bit. One is the Mayor of Nizhniy Novgorod whose sad saga shows how a person replace the law. (The elected mayor is a convicted criminal and is under investigation for fraud while in his last post.) Victor Klementev was tossed into jail to be isolated from the election. Yeltsin cannot make our life better but his ambitions don't let him give a chance to other people. The Mayor of Nizhniy Novgord may be one of the variants of future power. And the matter is not if it is better or worse? But it is possible.

You are writing about Chernomyrdin. My country has already forgotten who he is. Thank you for remembering about the deceased friend of Mr.President. But you cannot remember all of them!

Moskovskiy Komsomolets, March 24, 1999

'Five Lessons From Stepanych'

Article by Mikhail Rostovskiy:

Three Hundred and Sixty Five Days Without Chernomyrdin

If a poll on the role of this day in history had been carried out in the streets of Moscow yesterday, the majority of citizens would surely have just shrugged. Yet exactly a year ago a significant event took place in Russia: It lost Viktor Chernomyrdin, who was 'five minutes away from becoming president.' Currently, press and television journalists are again thronging Viktor Chernomyrdin's news conferences. But the attitude toward his speeches is completely different than a year ago. At that time each one of his slips of the tongue was literally dissected under a microscope.

And now people are treating Stepanych as yesterday's hero, today's mediocre politician, or a candidate for the post of chairman of the Gazprom board of directors at best. Perhaps this indifference is completely justified. Yet it is incorrect to forget about Viktor Stepanovich's existence either. One can learn many useful lessons from his fate...

Lesson No. 1. Back on 1 March 1998 Chernomyrdin was almost the main candidate for the Kremlin throne. It was impossible to make one's way through important petitioners in his reception office. And those who had doubts about the presidential chances of 'Chernomor' were ridiculed in newspapers. Currently, these same newspapers are mocking the presidential ambitions of Viktor Stepanych, and he himself is described as a man 'who has become entangled in time and the political area.' Meanwhile, according to eyewitnesses Chernomyrdin himself has changed extremely little during this year. Only the name of his post has changed. This, however, has turned out to be enough to give up for lost his brilliant Kremlin future. Current presidential candidates should not forget this.

Lesson No. 2. Exactly a year ago the Russia Is Our Home [NDR] bloc had the reputation of a scandalous though still quite decent outfit. In any event, few people had doubts about its chances to be represented in the next parliament, and in terms of the number of functionaries living in Our Home Chernomyrdin's party could compete only with the late CPSU. Currently, even the leader of Chernomyrdin's deputies, Vladimir Ryzhkov, openly says that the NDR stands almost no chance of overcoming the 5-percent threshold. Of course, nobody is interested in Our Home anymore. Yet the NDR is by no means the only party built according to the principle of uniting its members not around ideology but a promising official. It would not be a bad thing for current presidential candidates to think about this as well.

Lesson No. 3. That the political situation would become much more unstable without Chernomyrdin was clear back on the day of his dismissal. Kiriyenko was a political lightweight, and the Kremlin's clout alone evidently was not enough to ensure stability. The president's retinue could not but realize the evident danger. Still, this had no impact whatsoever on [Yeltsin's daughter] Tatyana Borisovna's decision to finish with Chernomyrdin. We are still using logic in our current attempts to predict the Kremlin's behavior in the future. But is it not a time to understand that the words 'logic' and 'Yeltsin's retinue' too often turn out to be incompatible?

Lesson No. 4. When Viktor Chernomyrdin agreed to return to the White House in August 1998, he was absolutely convinced of the support of the Duma and other bigwigs of Russian politics. During his first term of office he eventually always managed to reach an agreement with the denizens of Okhotnyy Ryad, and this time Zyuganov himself was assuring him of his ardent support. Why did everything turn out the other way around? The second rise of Stepanych gave him too many advantages in the fight for the presidential office. So the wolf pack of candidates torn to pieces their comrade who had shot ahead of them too much.

And finally, here is the last lesson, but not for everyone. 'We Have Had It! Down With the Government!' -- this was the most popular slogan at the end of the last winter. During the past year as many as four cabinets have been replaced in Russia, and now people at the Kremlin say to their utmost that it would not be a bad thing to replace the government once again. For some reason, however, no changes for the better are taking place in the country. Moreover, the situation in the economy is becoming worse and worse. And nobody is taking the blame for the crisis. Ministers from every government have held their post for no longer than a few months. So perhaps it is indeed time to put an end to the personnel disorder at the White House...?

March 5, 1999, Reuters News Wire, via Johnson's Russia List

Chronology of political shakeups under Yeltsin March 5, 1999

MOSCOW - Russian President Boris Yeltsin telephoned other ex-Soviet leaders Friday to seek their support for sacking Boris Berezovsky, the businessman who is Executive Secretary of the Commonwealth of Independent States. Yeltsin has often sacked key officials and close allies with little prior notice. Following is a chronology of important shakeups during Yeltsin's rule:

June 16, 1991 - Yeltsin becomes Russia's first directly elected president, beating Communist and nationalist candidates.

August - Yeltsin plays a key role in putting down a hard-line coup against Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev and soon eclipses his rival.

Oct 29 - Yeltsin announces plans for radical reforms for Russia with a team headed by little-known economist Yegor Gaidar.

Dec 14, 1992 - Yeltsin, now the leader of a post-Soviet independent Russia and facing opposition to Gaidar's reforms from a conservative parliament, drops Gaidar and replaces him with former gas industry boss Viktor Chernomyrdin.

Sept 21, 1993 - Yeltsin dissolves parliament, accusing it of blocking constitutional reforms and elections. Rebel deputies barricade themselves inside the White House parliament building.

Oct 4 - Supporters of parliament stage an armed attack on the Moscow television station. The following day Yeltsin uses tanks to storm the White House and put down the rebellion.

Dec 12 - Voters approve a constitution giving Yeltsin increased powers. They select a new lower house of parliament, the State Duma, at an election in which nationalists do well.

Oct 11, 1994 - The rouble nose-dives in a currency crisis. ''Black Tuesday'' forces central bank chairman Viktor Gerashchenko to resign, Yeltsin sacks acting finance minister Sergei Dubinin.

Dec 17, 1995 - Communists win over a third of Duma seats.

Jan 1996 - Yeltsin ousts several liberals including privatization chief Anatoly Chubais and Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev in a move widely seen as a setback for reform.

June 16 - Yeltsin wins the first round of a presidential election from Communist Gennady Zyuganov. He builds on his lead by making third-placed Alexander Lebed his security adviser.

June 19-20 - Yeltsin sacks four hawkish members of his team, bodyguard Alexander Korzhakov, First Deputy Prime Minister Oleg Soskovets, state security chief Mikhail Barsukov and Defense Minister Pavel Grachev.

July 3 - Yeltsin wins a second term, 13 points ahead of Zyuganov, despite cancelling campaign trips in the final stages.

Aug 31 - Lebed signs a peace deal ending the war in Chechnya.

Oct 17 - Yeltsin sacks Lebed, accusing him of harboring presidential ambitions and splitting the Kremlin team.

March/April 1997 - Back at the Kremlin after heart surgery, Yeltsin completes a government reshuffle. Reformers Anatoly Chubais and Boris Nemtsov are named first deputy premiers.

May 22 - Furious over army corruption and a lack of military reforms, Yeltsin sacks Defense Minister Igor Rodionov.

November - Yeltsin sacks Chubais, Privatization Minister Maxim Boiko and Federal Bankruptcy Agency chief Pyotr Mostovoi. Berezovsky is sacked as deputy secretary of security council.

March 23, 1998 - Back in the Kremlin after a respiratory infection, Yeltsin sacks Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin and his cabinet for failing to implement reforms. He names former Energy Minister Sergei Kiriyenko as Chernomyrdin's replacement.

Aug 17 - The government lets the rouble slide and defaults on some domestic debt. Yeltsin says he will stand by Kiriyenko.

Aug 23 - Yeltsin sacks Kiriyenko and his entire government and reappoints Chernomyrdin as acting prime minister.

Sept 10 - Yeltsin nominates Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov as prime minister after parliament blocks Chernomyrdin.

Sept 11 - Parliament approves Primakov as prime minister.

December - Yeltsin returns to work after a bout of pneumonia and sacks Valentin Yumashev as his Kremlin chief of staff, replacing him with former border guard chief Nikolai Bordyuzha.

March 4, 1999 - Amid speculation of a possible cabinet shakeup, Yeltsin announces he is withdrawing support for Boris Berezovsky as Executive Secretary of the CIS.